The Essentials

Betting on Flight Delays: Prediction Markets and Insider Risks

We all know about, and most of us have experienced, airline delays. But now, can you actually bet on whether or not your flight will be on time?

Prediction markets like Kalshi have now built flight cancellation betting pages — covering everything from the percentage of flights cancelled at individual airports during a specific timeframe to wagering on individual flights.

But how do you protect against insider trading? Someone recently made a $120 bet on flight cancellations at Charles de Gaulle Airport in Paris, then tampered with a weather reporting station, feeding it incorrect information that resulted in massive delays and a $21,000 payoff.

What’s to prevent an air traffic controller from betting on delays, then slowing traffic down or even calling a ground stop?

Of course, in case you’re wondering, the most on-time airlines this year are Alaska and United, while the airlines with the most flight cancellations are American and JetBlue.