The Travel Detective

Travel Detective Blog: What We Know So Far About AirAsia Flight 8501

Image Source: Kentaro Lemoto

Image Source: Kentaro Lemoto

As the story of the disappearance of AirAsia Flight 8501 continues, the inevitable avalanche of questions begins. Some “experts” will immediately jump to speculation, and the conspiracy theorists will be out in force. But for the rest of us, let me at least attempt to answer some of the questions where I know the answers, and explain some of the lessons learned from past accidents:

The pilots requested to change altitude because of bad weather. But it was denied. Why?

Pilots ask for rerouting from air traffic controllers hundreds of times a day—based on weather, operational issues, etc. To have that request denied also happens hundreds of times a day—there may be other traffic in the area. It’s as simple as that.

Every pilot has at his/her disposal onscreen, forward-looking weather radar. Large red patches on the screen indicate the most severe weather or known turbulence. No pilot ever flies into that, no matter how strong his aircraft. It’s just not done. So, there is either a route or altitude diversion requested. But remember, that’s the weather the radar can detect. What’s often worse is CAT or Clear Air Turbulence. There is no advance warning, other than what might be provided by other airline pilots flying ahead of your flight.

Of course, investigators will initially focus on weather as a possible factor in this incident, simply because the weather situation was already documented and known.

But for the plane to simply disappear from the radar with no further radio transmissions is highly unusual. Even when Pan Am 103 was bombed in 1988, controllers on the ground could see the plane breaking up on their radar screens, because each individual large chunk of metal falling from the plane created its own distinct radar signature. So, one of the questions that needs to be asked is what did the controllers SEE on their screens?

That begs another question: Were any controllers visually tracking Flight 8501 at that moment (other than radio contact), since the aircraft was flying over a dead zone above the Java sea?

Again, in any situation like this, investigators will have to first painstakingly and methodically rule individual things out before ever ruling any one thing in.

So, here is what investigators are looking at now:

1. Human Factors

Age and employment history of the pilots, experience levels (how many certified hours in this aircraft type), any financial problems, marital problems, and any known political affiliations?

2. Maintenance History of the Airplane

In particular, there are two crucial questions: Had it just had a major regularly scheduled overhaul, or was it due for one? If it had just been released from maintenance, what were the key items that needed to be fixed?

3. Weather

We know there was weather. but what about reports from other pilots in the area? Or, was this the only flight that requested an altitude change?

4.Tracking of the Flight

Which countries other than Singapore and Indonesia were tracking this flight?

5. The Cargo Manifest

This might be key if there had been a serious CG (Center of Gravity) shift of the stuff in the hold during a storm, resulting in loss of control of the aircraft. Or, just as dangerous, what cargo was the flight carrying? Remember, the initial reports from Malaysia Airlines said Flight 370 had a large shipment of mangoes on board. Only later did they reveal it was MORE than mangoes, and the cargo records reflected a shipment of potential lethal lithium ion batteries.

6. Cockpit Voice Recorder

Assuming they find wreckage, the CVR (Cockpit Voice Recorder) could be immensely helpful here, since it gives investigators the last two  hours of a flight. In this case, that’s exactly what we need. (In the case of MH370, we needed the first two hours of the flight, which wasn’t possible, since the plane flew for nearly five more hours.)

Finally, what were the lessons from the still missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 and how have they been applied since then?

The one key finding about the search for MH370 is how little information investigators had at their disposal. It all gets down to dead zones and real time tracking. The key lesson from MH370—before we ever discover what happened—is the absolute need for real time cockpit and voice data tracking on every flight via satellite to the cloud. The technology exists now. It needs to be implemented. The black box (Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder) technology is essentially 60 years old. It’s like trying to send an email via a rotary phone.

The technology exists, and should be implemented for real time voice/data streaming for every commercial flight. It would provide almost instantaneous (and more precise) critical information to investigators on every necessary parameter of a flight and the plane and crew performance. Plus, it would aid officials immensely in locating a downed airplane and learning the probable cause of just about any accident.

So, how can this be implemented quickly? Our own Federal Aviation Admnistration can accomplish this in short order by simple rulemaking. Issue an order that says no commercial aircraft can fly into or out of U.S. airspace after Jan 1, 2016 if the plane is not equipped with the streaming voice/data equipment. Give the airlines a year to install them (hence the 2016 deadline). Miraculously, not only will international airlines comply almost immediately, but other foreign governmental safety agencies will implement similar rules.

This rule should have been issued following MH370 last March. It was even discussed at the International Air Transport Associations’s annual meeting in Doha this past June.

But we cannot wait for the private sector to police this one. It needs a government order. It needs one now.

In the meantime, there will be more on Flight 8501 as I get additional information.

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By Peter Greenberg for PeterGreenberg.com